Spring Training Preview: Pitchers and Catchers

With the first few days on the way, here's a look at what Atlanta brings to Florida

Pitchers and Catchers reported, and that means we are so back. The Braves enter 2024 Spring Training with plenty of hype surrounding the team and some question marks. One of the biggest storylines is who’ll be the fifth starter. I’ll take a deep dive into that question and more as our position preview series begins.

PITCHERS - 24 (15 RHP, 9 LHP) + 8 non-roster invitees

The Surefire Starters

Spencer Strider

• 2023 Stats: 32 GS, 186.2 IP, 20-5, 3.86 ERA, 58 BB, 281 K, 2.85 FIP, .210 BAA, 36.8% K%

• 2024 Projected Stats (via Fangraphs): 31 GS, 176.0 IP, 16-7, 3.28 ERA, 53 BB, 254 K, 2.96 FIP, .204 BAA, 35.6% K%

Spencer Strider is good at baseball. I could end my analysis there, honestly, because what more is there to say about him? He is the fastest pitcher in MLB history to reach 200 strikeouts in a season, doing it in 123.1 innings and breaking his old record in the process. His 281 punchouts are a Braves’ single-season record.

For the “bUt He HaS a HiGh ERA” crowd, if you watched Braves games you could probably see that he was one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. The stats back it up, as evidenced by the FIP which is a full run lower than the ERA and his .316 BAPIP, which was 5th highest among all SP. Even if those numbers stay unlucky, you’re looking at one of the best starters in all of baseball, made even scarier by the fact he’s only 25 and relies on 2 pitches (his fastball + slider account for 92.7 percent of his pitches thrown last season). Could you imagine if he developed the changeup even more? Scary, scary, scary thought.

Max Fried

• 2023 Stats: 14 GS, 77.2 IP, 8-1, 2.55 ERA, 18 BB, 80 K, 3.14 FIP, .244 BAA, 25.7% K%

• 2024 Projected Stats (via Fangraphs): 31 GS, 173.0 IP, 15-7, 3.27 ERA, 47 BB, 158 K, 3.44 FIP, .240 BAA, 22.1% K%

Fried had a dominant 2022, finishing 2nd in Cy Young Award voting, but struggled in the 2022 postseason after dealing with illness, surrendering 6 runs (4 earned) on 8 hits in 3.1 innings in Game 1 of the NLDS. Max started 2023 on a better note, with a 2.08 ERA over his first 5 starts with 6 walks to 25 strikeouts in 26 innings. Granted, he dealt with a hamstring injury between his first and second start.

But it was a forearm strain that put the lefty on the IL for 2 months. When he returned he was the same old Max Fried, the Braves going 8-1 in his final 9 starts of the regular season while striking out 55 to 12 walks over 51.2 innings with a 2.79 ERA. The best start of the season came against the loaded Dodgers squad, pitching 7 scoreless with 10 strikeouts. He allowed just 5 baserunners (3 hits, 2 walks).

As he gained momentum, another injury popped up, a finger blister that ended his regular season. After a 2-and-a-half-week long absence, Fried started Game 2 of the NLDS against Philadelphia, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits, walking a season-high 4 batters and striking out just 3.

Now, the 30-year-old hopes to stay healthy and increase his value as he’s on a contract year. As Bryce Koon and I have discussed on a recent Chopaholic podcast, this could likely be the final year of Fried in a Braves uniform as the California native will likely command over $200 million in free agency.

Chris Sale

• 2023 Stats: 20 GS, 102.2 IP, 6-5, 4.30 ERA, 29 BB, 125 K, 3.39 FIP, .227 BAA, 29.4% K%

• 2024 Projected Stats (via Fangraphs): 26 GS, 131.0 IP, 9-6, 3.84 ERA, 40 BB, 161 K, 3.80 FIP, 29.1% K%

Raise your hand if you guessed Chris Sale had more innings pitched than Max Fried last year. I certainly was surprised by that. I covered the Sale trade extensively here and let’s be honest, you likely know who Chris Sale is by this point, his positives plus his question marks (mainly, health). The positive is the high strikeout rate despite the injury concerns over the past three seasons… to go along with an ERA around or under 4 each of those seasons. I still view Sale as a top starter when healthy and he slots in brilliantly as the #3.

Charlie Morton

• 2023 Stats: 30 GS, 163.1 IP, 14-12, 3.64 ERA, 83 BB, 183 K, 3.87 FIP, .244 BAA, 25.6% K%

• 2024 Projected Stats via Fangraphs: 29 GS, 162.0 IP, 13-9, 4.09 ERA, 69 BB, 179 K, 4.22 FIP, .235 BAA, 25.7% K%

Good ole ageless wonder Charlie Morton. Morton is entering his 37th 17th season in the bigs, his fourth in Atlanta. Last year was an interesting one for Charlie. Like Strider, he had bad luck with BAPIP (2nd highest in MLB) and his strikeout numbers (183) were still high. But the walks were a major issue, walking a whopping 11.6 percent of batters. That mark is only behind Blake Snell for the worst in baseball. His final four starts of the season were concerning, allowing 12 runs on 18 hits with 14 walks to 18 strikeouts in 15.2 innings. He didn’t pitch in the series against Philly due to inflammation in his right index finger.

Now 40 and in the final year of his contract (the team exercised his $20 million option), Morton looks for one final season of efficiency in a Braves uniform. Fun fact, Morton has now eclipsed 150+ strikeouts in 6 of his last 7 seasons (the only one he didn’t was in the shortened 2020 season). If he eclipses that mark again, he’ll be just the 22nd pitcher since integration to do that and the first since Dick Mountain himself, Rich Hill, in 2021.

By the way, two other Braves have hit that mark at age 40+: Phil Niekro (208 in 1979, 176 in 1980) and John Smoltz (197 in 2007).

When the season starts, Morton will be the eighth Brave to make a start while in his 40s (10th if you want to count *checks notes* Johnny Niggeling in 1946 and Cy Young in 1911, when I think it was a requirement to be 40 years old to be a starting pitcher). The other Braves to do so (with age + fWAR):

• R.A. Dickey (42, 1.5 fWAR) - 2017

• Bartolo Colon (44, 0.4 fWAR) - 2017

• John Smoltz (40 & 41, 6.5 total fWAR) - 2007 & 2008

• Tom Glavine (42, -0.6 fWAR) - 2008

• Phil Niekro (40-44, 1 start at age 48, 14.7 total fWAR) - 1979-1983, 1987

• Gaylord Perry (I was today years old when I found this out, 42, 2.8 fWAR) - 1981

• Warren Spahn (40-43, 9.0 total fWAR) - 1961-1964

Morton will hope his age-40 season will look more like John Smoltz & Phil Niekro, and less like Tom Glavine and Bartolo Colon.

The Battle for 5th Spot

Bryce Elder

• 2023 Stats: 31 GS, 174.2 IP, 12-4, 3.81 ERA, 63 BB, 128 K, 4.42 FIP, .245 BAA, 17.5% K%

• 2024 Projected Stats (via Fangraphs): 24 GS, 132.0 IP, 8-5, 4.22 ERA, 49 BB, 109 K, 4.45 FIP, .252 BAA, 19.2% K%

It’s wild that a 24-year-old fresh off of his first All-Star Game isn’t a lock to be in the rotation. While it is true that Elder is the favorite to earn the fifth spot, it is fair to question if it will. After posting a 2.45 ERA (a 3.76 FIP should’ve been a warning sign regression was coming) over his first 17 starts, his final 14 saw that number balloon to 5.75 (with a 5.37 FIP) and 11 home runs surrendered in his final 14 starts. Not to mention his NLDS start which went fine until the second time through the order… we all saw what happened against Bryce Harper.

As a groundball pitcher whose fastball averages 89.8 MPH, Elder thrived on location and limiting hard-hit balls… which ultimately was his downfall in the second half.

I think Elder is perfectly fine as the #5 starter and I believe he’ll enter the year with that role secured, but with the rough second half nothing is for certain. Especially considering the direction the team has gone with pitching this offseason, valuing stuff + strikeout rate with additions of Chris Sale and the next guy we’ll talk about.

Reynaldo Lopez

• 2023 Stats: 68 app., 66.0 IP, 3-7, 3.27 ERA, 34 BB, 83 K, 3.91 FIP, .207 BAA, 29.9% K%

• 2024 Projected Stats (via Fangraphs): 67 app., 67.0 IP, 6-4, 2 SV, 3.67 ERA, 25 BB, 74 K, 3.77 FIP, .231 BAA, 26.3% K%

Lopez signed a three-year, $29 million contract over the offseason, and the reports are he’s being stretched out to potentially start. He was a starter to start his career, making 97 in total, until getting moved to the bullpen in late 2021.

In those 97 starts, well, it’s not pretty. A 4.73 ERA, 7.7 strikeouts per 9, and a 2.29 strikeout per walk ratio. But, it seems Lopez found something. From 2016 to 2021, Lopez’s fastball velo sat at 94-96 MPH. In 2022, it averaged 97.1 MPH and last season, it was at 98.2. Plus, Lopez ended last season on a hot streak after Cleveland selected him off of waivers. Lopez had 12 straight scoreless outings, allowing 5 hits and striking out 12.

At worst, this is a move that ensures the Braves have an option out of the bullpen who can go multiple innings, something that is needed both now and in the future. Jackson Stephens, Collin McHugh (retired), and Michael Tonkin (Mets) were among the regulars in the Braves bullpen who have pitched multiple innings multiple times in 2023. Lopez has the highest upside of anybody when it comes to that role.

AJ Smith-Shawver

• 2023 Stats: 6 GP (5 GS), 25.1 IP, 1-0, 4.26 ERA, 11 BB, 20 K, 6.69 FIP, .183 BAA, 19.1% K%

  • 2023 Minor League Stats (A+/AA/AAA): 15 GS, 62.0 IP, 4-2, 2.76 ERA, 33 BB, 79 K

• 2024 Projected Stats (via Fangraphs): 26 GP (5 GS), 40.0 IP, 2-2, 4.54 ERA, 21 BB, 42 K, 4.69 FIP, .240 BAA, 23.6% K%

The 21-year-old made his MLB debut last season, even pitching in the NLDS. His only 3 hits allowed in 2.2 innings were 3 solo HRs while walking 1 and striking out 3.

Baseball America ranks the 6-3 righty as the #42 prospect in the Top 100.

Smith-Shawver was the first prep pitching prospect from the 2021 class to make the majors. His electric fastball and feel to spin multiple breaking balls give him mid-rotation upside if he can sharpen his command. And he could have the athleticism to make that happen. - Baseball America

Unlikely, but Interesting Names to watch

• Hurston Waldrep (BA #49 Prospect)

• Darius Vines

• Allan Winans

• Huascar Ynoa

BULLPEN

Likely roster

• Raisel Iglesias

• A.J. Minter

• Reynaldo Lopez

• Joe Jimenez

• Aaron Bummer

• Pierce Johnson

• Tyler Matzek

• Dylan Lee

Other names to watch

• Jackson Stephens

• Daysbel Hernandez

• Ray Kerr

• Angel Perdomo

• Ken Giles

• Taylor Widener

• Jake Walsh

• Ben Bowden

• Grant Holmes

The bullpen seems set, but Tyler Matzek’s health is a storyline to keep in mind ahead of Spring Training. Lefties Ray Kerr and Angel Perdomo could slot in ahead of Matzek if he has any setbacks or just needs more time to get back to full strength.

The bullpen looks incredibly deep this year and has the potential to be one of the best in baseball.

Ken Giles is the other notable name on the non-roster invite list. The 33-year-old is looking to make his first MLB appearance since 2022.

CATCHERS - 2 + 4 non-roster invitees

Sean Dumpy Murphy

• 2023 Stats: 108 G, .251/.365/.478 21 HR, 68 RBI, 49 BB, 98 K, 125 OPS+, 129 wRC+

• 2024 Projected Stats via Fangraphs: 105 G, .251/.347/.468, 19 HR, 55 RBI, 42 BB, 97 K, 120 wRC+

Murphy had a weird 2023. He accounted for 4.2 fWAR, had 8 defensive runs saved, and slashed .306/.400/.599 with 17 HR and 55 RBI in the first half of the season, yet his season ended with such a slump that you could consider his first year in Atlanta a mixed bag. Defensively, you know what you’re getting. He led all catchers with 16 blocks above average, 4th in arm strength (84.0 MPH), 5th in pop time (1.89) and 6th in framing (7 catcher framing runs).

• 2023 1st half: 67 G, .306/.400/.599, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 29 BB, 63 K

• 2023 2nd half: 41 G, .159/.310/.275, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 20 BB, 35 K

Yet despite the putrid second half, Murphy still posted career highs in AVG, OBP, SLG, HR, RBI, while boasting his highest wRC+ since 2020 (133). Murphy will look to build on it even more in his age-29 season.

Travis d’Arnaud

• 2023 Stats: 74 G, .225/.288/.397, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 21 BB, 67 K, 82 OPS+, 83 wRC+

• 2024 Projected Stats via Fangraphs: 86 G, .243/.306/.407, 11 HR, 45 RBI, 24 BB, 84 K, 91 wRC+

74 games is the fewest Travis d’Arnaud played since 2021, where he missed time due to a left thumb sprain. The 35-year-old didn’t have the best season offensively, and like his fellow catcher Sean Murphy struggled mightily in the second half. He did have a 2-run homer in the Braves lone win of the NLDS, but was 0-6 with a walk in his other plate appearances.

But, we know that d’Arnaud’s locker room presence speaks more than his play on the field. Admittedly, I was a little disappointed with how he reacted following the whole Orlando Arcia/Bryce Harper incident, but how could you not love TDA after watching this from a couple weeks ago?

Other names to watch

• Chadwick Tromp - He is inevitable, he is all

• Drake Baldwin - Interesting name here, the 2022 3rd round selection out of Missouri State started his year in High-A and ended it in AAA. The left-handed hitter only played 3 games in Gwinnett but had a 3-4 game with a HR in his penultimate game of the season. In total, he slashed .270/.385/.460 with 16 HR and 61 RBI and a 132 wRC+ last season. He’ll turn 23 in March.

What Spring Training storylines are you most looking forward to? Leave a comment below or let me know on X/Twitter @LoganWhaleyKAIT.