Grading the Atlanta Braves' Offseason; Projecting Opening Day roster

Looking back at what the Braves were able to accomplish this offseason

With Spring Training almost underway, the Braves made several under-the-hood moves and a couple of splash trades as Alex Anthopolous, fresh off of an extension that will keep him in Atlanta until 2031, wrapped up his sixth full offseason as the Braves’ GM. Let’s dive deeper into the Braves’ offseason.

Extensions

• Pierce Johnson - 2 years, $14.25 million

• Joe Jimenez - 3 years, $26 million

• Chris Sale - 2 years, $38 million

Nothing too noteworthy here (I’ll dive deeper into the Sale trade later), but Pierce Johnson’s extension was well deserved. One of the few bright spots during the 2023 NLDS. He allowed just 3 hits over his last 8 regular-season outings with 11 strikeouts to 1 walk. He carried the hot streak against the Phillies, pitching 2.2 innings, allowing 4 baserunners (2 hits, 2 walks) with 4 strikeouts and 0 runs allowed. By the way, did you know that Pierce Johnson has now made 11 appearances in his postseason career? 5 for the Padres in 2020, 3 for the Padres in 2022, and 3 with the Braves last season.

Jimenez was a welcomed addition to the Braves bullpen after coming over via trade from the Tigers. He struck out nearly 31% of his batters faced and had a 3.04 ERA over 57 appearances.

FA/Waiver Additions

• RHP Reynaldo Lopez (3 years, $30 million)

• INF Luis Guillorme (1-year, $1.1 million)

• RHP Penn Murphy (Waivers - Mets)

• LHP Angel Perdomo (Waivers - Pirates)

• RHP Ken Giles (Minor League deal w/ Spring Training invite)

• RHP Jake Walsh (Minor League deal w/ Spring Training invite)

• RHP Taylor Widener (Minor League deal w/ Spring Training invite)

• RHP (!!!) Charlie Culberson (Minor League deal)

• 3B Phillip Evans (Minor League deal w/ Spring Training invite)

• OF Jordan Luplow (Minor League deal w/ Spring Training invite)

Departures

• RHP Kirby Yates (Rangers - 1-year, $4.5 million)

• RHP Michael Tonkin (Mets - 1-year, $1 million)

• LHP Kolby Allard (Phillies - 1-year, $1 million)

• RHP Jesse Chavez (Minor League deal with White Sox, I am sad)

• OF Kevin Pillar (Minor League deal with White Sox)

• OF Sam Hilliard (Waivers - Orioles)

• RHP Collin McHugh (Retired)

• OF Eddie Rosario (likely)

• LHP Brad Hand (likely)

Nothing too crazy on the FA front, but the Chicago White Sox is essentially the new old Braves with Chavez, Pillar, Soroka, Nicky Lopez, Braden Shewmake and Jared Shuster on the roster. Reynaldo Lopez is the most interesting addition, as the report is he’ll convert to a starter, looking to make his first start since 2022.

Oh, another departure that has to be talked about is Ron Washington. One of the most beloved Braves figures of all time, Wash gets another chance to be the manager of a club, going to the Angels.

Trades

HIGH-RISK, HIGH-REWARD TRADES

Dec. 30, 2023

• Braves Receive: LHP Chris Sale, $17 million

• Red Sox Receive: SS/2B Vaughn Grissom

Let’s start with the big one, shall we? Chris Sale will be the #3 in the Braves rotation and will be owed $16 million by the Braves this season after getting an extension.

The good: Sale is elite. 6 straight seasons of finishing inside the top 5 in Cy Young voting. When healthy, he’s a proven top-end starter.

The bad: That stretch was from 2013-2018. Since then, he’s made 56 starts in total (11.2 per season). He missed the back half of the 2019 season due to elbow inflammation. He had Tommy John surgery in 2020.

His first start in just over 2 years in August 2021, where he looked like his old self… until the postseason. Sale pitched 3 games in the 2021 Postseason, pitching 9 innings over 3 starts, allowing 8 earned runs with 12 hits, walking 4 and striking out 11. 3 of those 12 hits went for extra bases (2 HR, 1 2B).

The injury bug would bite again in 2022. Sale had a right rib stress fracture before the season, starting the year on the 60-day IL. His first start of the season was in July against the Rays, pitching 5 scoreless with 5 punchouts… but in his next start against the Yankees he gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in the first inning and got pulled after getting hit by an Aaron Hicks line drive, fracturing a finger on his pitching hand.

Then… the infamous injury. In August 2022, Sale broke his wrist on his non-pitching hand whilst riding a bike to lunch, ending his season.

Alright, surely 2023 was a year he finally put injuries behind him, right? Kinda. He stayed healthy the first half of the season, starting 11 games with a 4.58 ERA, a 3.68 FIP, 15 BB-71 K with opponents hitting .243 against him. 8 of those 11 starts saw him surrender 3 runs or less (only in 2 of those starts did he strike out less than 7 batters). The other 3, he gave up 18 runs (17 earned). He missed most of June and all of July with a stress reaction in his scapula.

When he returned in mid-August, he made 9 more starts, with better results. He pitched 43.2 innings, had a 3.92 ERA (3.97 FIP, though), with opponents hitting .203 against him.

So why would Anthopolous trade for a lefty like Sale and extend him? First, Sale is cheaper than most every mid-top end starting pitcher that came off the market this offseason. Would Eduardo Rodriguez provide you with more stability? Sure. But does he provide the upside that Sale has when healthy? No way. Sale, despite missing so much time between 2019-2023 struck out 32.1 percent of his batters faced. Smaller sample size, yes, but that’s 5th most in baseball in that span. Tyler Glasnow, a player who had similar injury problems as Sale, was 3rd (35%) in the same time frame… and the Dodgers not only gave up more to get Glasnow but they paid him $136.5 million over the next 5 years. That’s a much larger risk than Sale, but the two have similar upsides.

And two, there’s no expectation that Sale is the ace on this team. Spencer Strider is. Max Fried (who has struggled to stay healthy the past two seasons) is just as good when healthy. At best, the Strider-Fried-Sale trio are Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine level for 1 season. At worst, Fried and/or Sale struggle with injuries, leaving the Braves, who won 104 games last year, with essentially the same rotation issues as last year. But that’s the worst case scenario and even then we saw last year that a lack of pitching depth didn’t hinder the Braves as much (mostly because the lineup was historically good). Will this lineup regress? The odds will tell you yes. But on paper, this Braves staff is deeper than last year and the addition of Sale will help.

Oh, and of course the fact that Sale has plenty of postseason exprience. He was the Boston hero in 2018 when he struck out the side to win the World Series, but he does sport a 6.35 ERA (the fact his FIP is nearly 2 runs lower at 4.40 is crazy) across 10 outings in 3 different years.

Dec. 3, 2023

• Braves Receive: OF Jarred Kelenic, INF Evan White, LHP Marco Gonzales, cash ($4.5 million)

• Mariners Receive: RHP Jackson Kowar, RHP Cole Phillips

Kelenic was the prize here, as Gonzales and his $12 million contract were shipped to the Pirates along with cash for a PTBNL. White was flipped to the Angels along with lefty Tyler Thomas for Max Stassi (later traded) and David Fletcher.

We all know the story. Kelenic, still just 24 years old and once a top prospect, struggled mightily in his first two seasons with Seattle. From March to May (53-game span), he slashed .277/.333/.513 with 10 HR, 26 RBI, 16 BB, 67 K (31.5% strikeout rate), and 132 wRC+ (48th in MLB, 24th among OF). After a June slump where the lefty went 13-for-75 with 34 strikeouts, Kelenic started to piece things together in July, before ultimately breaking his foot after kicking a water cooler.

"I've done a lot of learning the last three years, that's for sure," Kelenic said in his introductory press conference. "I'm looking forward to being myself and having a clean slate… I had to take a step back and realize how lucky and thankful I am to be in the position I am in. Ever since I was a little kid, I wanted to play in the big leagues, and here I am. I'm in the big leagues and I break my foot out of frustration. That just can't happen… I still believe in the ability I have."

It’s risky because Kelenic is still a wild card and with the contracts the Braves took on (and subsequently dropped), the hope is that the LF will build on the March & April he had to start the season while dropping the strikeout rate. That’s something that Ronald Acuña did last season. After his first four seasons sitting in the 23-29% range, Ronnie dropped his K% to 11.4%. If the change of scenery helps Kelenic do that, it’ll be a steal for the Braves because they’ll have team control until 2029.

BULLPEN REVAMP

Nov. 16, 2023

• Braves Receive: LHP Aaron Bummer

• White Sox Receive: RHP Michael Soroka, RHP Riley Goins, LHP Jared Shuster, INF Nicky Lopez, INF Brandon Shewmake

Dec. 15, 2023

• Braves Receive: DH/1B Matt Carpenter, LHP Ray Kerr, $1.5 million

• Padres Receive: OF Drew Campbell

Bummer was a bit unlucky in 2023, as despite a .236 BAA, a 29.2% K%, a 3.58 FIP, a hard hit% and average exit velocity in line with his career averages, the lefty was tagged with a 6.79 ERA over 61 appearances. Walks were an issue, as he issued 36 of them in 58.1 innings.

Matt Carpenter would later be released, he signed a 1-year deal for the league minimum with the Cardinals, that amount will be subtracted from the $4 million the Braves owe him. Kerr is another lefty depth piece who’ll fight for one of the bullpen spots.

So the lefties now: Kerr, Bummer, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee. Not too bad

RETOOLING BENCH DEPTH

Dec. 8, 2023

• Braves Receive: INF David Fletcher, C Max Stassi

• Angels Receive: INF Evan White, LHP Tyler Thomas

Stassi would be traded to the White Sox (the team we all thought the Braves would be trading partners with, for this exact trade right here and no others) for a PTBNL or cash. Fletcher is currently a non-roster invitee to Spring Training, and he projects to be the new Nicky Lopez, filling the utility infielder role.

Jan. 26, 2024

• Braves receive: OF J.P. Martinez

• Rangers receive: LHP Tyler Owens

Other notable moves

• Braves sign MLB Pipeline’s #3 international prospect SS Jose Perdomo with a $5 million bonus (the largest bonus ever given to a Venezuelan player)

GRADES

• Free Agency: C+

• Trades: A-

• Overall: B+

ANALYSIS

Atlanta didn’t make a splash trade or splash signing, but they truly didn’t need to given they kept the core of the 2023 squad. One could argue the Sale deal was a splash trade, but I’d put it a tier below that given the Braves didn’t give up a haul of top prospects. The Braves addressed several needs, especially pitching depth (both in rotation and bullpen). The only concern is the bench depth, but when you have a lineup as good as Atlanta’s that’s more a luxury than anything else.

Projecting the 2024 Opening Day Roster

Pitchers (13)

• Spencer Strider

• Max Fried

• Chris Sale

• Charlie Morton

• Bryce Elder

• Raisel Iglesias

• A.J. Minter

• Reynaldo Lopez

• Joe Jimenez

• Aaron Bummer

• Pierce Johnson

• Tyler Matzek

• Dylan Lee

Penn Murfee is an interesting name to watch for as the season progresses. He was pitching well out of the pen for Seattle before tearing his UCL. He’ll more than likely start the year on the IL. Angel Perdomo also had season-ending surgery last season, it’s TBD if he can make it back in 2024.

Catchers (2)

• Sean Murphy

• Travis d’Arnaud

I imagine if the Braves roll with 3 catchers at any point, it’ll be Chadwick Tromp who’ll come up. Chadwick Tromp is inevitable.

Infielders (6)

• Matt Olson

• Ozzie Albies

• Orlando Arcia

• Austin Riley

• David Fletcher

• Luis Guillorme

Outfielders (5)

• Ronald Acuña Jr.

• Michael Harris II

• Jarred Kelenic

• Marcell Ozuna (DH)

• Jordan Luplow (Going with him over the more unproven J.P. Martinez, Luplow is essentially Kevin Pillar lite, with good fielding but the bat is horrific).

What do you think? Do you have a different grade or a different thought on who’ll be on the Opening Day roster? Drop a comment below.

This post is part of an offseason series to launch The Chopaholic brand. To read more about what to expect, check out the article below.