Over/Under Win Total Predictions for Every SEC Team
Predicting which teams will beat Vegas in 2025
Ladies and gentlemen…there are fewer than two weeks before the 2025 college football season kicks off! This season represents a big opportunity for many teams in the SEC to take the next step and become true contenders at the top of the conference. While all of the teams in the middle of the SEC believe they will improve on their record from last season, someone is going to have to take a step back. Before Week 0 is here, check out which teams I think will beat expectations this year, and which will fall behind the pack.
*Quick reminder: The following win/loss totals are as of this article’s writing (08/10)*
Alabama (9.5)
Prediction: Over
Alabama had all of the components of a national title contender except for one: identity. Bama struggled to establish an identity on offense last year due to a lack of consistent playcalling. To address this, head man Kalen DeBoer brought back former Washington Offensive Coordinator Ryan Grubb. The two hope to replicate a potent Huskies offense that relied on a powerful run game paired with dynamic playmakers outside. With an emphasis on actually running the ball (no, RPOs do not count as trying to run the ball) this season, I think the Tide will flex their muscle and help new quarterback Ty Simpson get his feet wet. Look for Alabama to make a run at the SEC title game this season.
Arkansas (5.5)
Prediction: Under
This prediction makes me sad. It feels like everyone in the SEC likes Sam Pittman, but no one thinks he will win at Arkansas. Unfortunately, I agree with the national consensus in thinking this will be the last year Pittman will be the head coach for the Razorbacks. Even IF Arkansas wins all of their out-of-conference games this season (why in God’s name did they agree to play AT Memphis??), the SEC will be as unforgiving as ever. I have Pittman’s team winning five games this season, placing them under their win total, and looking for a new head coach this offseason.
Auburn (7.5)
Prediction: Under
Good ole’ Hugh Freeze. The man just has a way with words, doesn't he? While most coaches might shy away from admitting they asked their defensive coordinator to make life easier on the quarterback, Hugh Freeze isn’t most coaches. The Tigers will have their work cut out for them if Freeze intends to hang onto his job after the 2025 season. With a forgiving out-of-conference schedule featuring teams like Ball State, Mercer, and South Alabama, I believe Auburn can reach seven wins this season. For the Tigers to break through and win eight games, you have to rely on Auburn beating all of the teams they are supposed to beat and picking off a “better” team. Until Hugh Freeze does it, I wouldn’t hold your breath.
Florida (7.5)
Prediction: Under
The hype around Florida this offseason has gotten out of control. Yes, the Gators ended last season with positive momentum. Sure, DJ Lagway looked good against some solid teams at the end of the 2024 season. There is one hurdle, however, that Florida seems incapable of clearing heading into this season: staying healthy. Whether it is projected (and heavily relied upon) wide receivers going down due to injury, or DJ Lagway constantly landing on the injury report, the Gators cannot get out of their own way. Development does not just happen with time passing, and if Florida’s top talent cannot stay on the field, they will not take the next step as a program. I won’t be betting my own money on this one, but under is the play here.
Georgia (9.5)
Prediction: Over
This was another INCREDIBLY close call. With games against Texas, Alabama, and a resurgent Georgia Tech squad this season, new starting quarterback Gunnar Stockton will be tested early and often. My over-prediction rests on two factors: Georgia gets most of its toughest opponents at home, and the Dawgs should be much improved at wide receiver this season. Georgia does not need Stockton to play like an elite QB this season for their offense to be successful. With plenty of talent around Stockton, the Dawgs need their triggerman to administer the offense and be a prototypical game manager. I believe head man Kirby Smart will field an elite defense as well this season, barely securing a ten-win season and vaulting the Dawgs back into the SEC title game.
Kentucky (4.5)
Prediction: Under
This prediction does NOT make me sad. Hand up: I don’t like Mark Stoops. He seems like a jerk and no fun to get a beer with. Worst of all, he made fun of Shane Beamer, and I will never forgive him for that. So am I objective about the Wildcats? Absolutely not. Will I still give my opinion? Absolutely. There are not five wins on this schedule. With a roster gutted by the transfer portal and key coaches jumping ship for rival schools, Kentucky is in a bad place heading into 2025. Has Mark Stoops beaten the odds before and won more than analysts predicted? Yes, but don’t expect it this season. And oh, by the way, Wildcats, don’t take the season opener against Toledo for granted.
LSU (8.5)
Prediction: Under
Enter another fun guy, Brian Kelly. For a squad that has consistently struggled out of the gate, LSU has a tall order traveling to Fake Death Valley in Week 1. Past the opener, the Tigers’ schedule is no cake walk. Trips to Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma promise to challenge the new look LSU defense under second-year Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker. While I believe LSU improved this offseason, many of the teams on the Tigers’ schedule got better too. It’s a close call, but I think Kelly’s squad wins eight games and is extremely competitive this year.
Mississippi State (3.5)
Prediction: Over
Who needs Michael Van Buren anyway?! Is it a gut punch to watch your starting quarterback transfer to a conference rival to be the backup? Sure. Will his departure tank Mississippi State’s 2025 season? Don’t bet on it. Jeff Lebby can coach offense, and the Bulldogs will have another year of development in what could be a rising program this year. If State wins all of its out-of-conference games (which should not be difficult) and picks off ONE conference opponent, Stark Vegas beats Las Vegas. Look for the Bulldogs to double their win total from last season and beat the odds this season.
Missouri (6.5)
Prediction: Over
If you have read anything I’ve written before, you know I have beef with Missouri. Eli Drinkwitz is the perfect fit for the Tigers; they are both just so hateable. Past my personal bias, you are a fool if you can’t see how Missouri’s program has risen over the last five years. Vegas thinks that the Tigers are in for a rebuilding year, as Missouri loses a ton of production on offense. While I agree that Mizzou will take a step back this season, I believe seven wins is the number here.
Oklahoma (8.5)
Prediction: Under
You couldn’t ask for a tougher schedule if you’re Oklahoma. Out of the Sooners’ last seven games to end the season, SIX are ranked in the AP Top 25. That is insane pressure for anyone, especially for Brent Venables, as he fights to keep his job. To combat the offensive woes from last year, Venables brought in quarterback John Mateer and Offensive Coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Washington State. Clearly, Vegas thinks that the addition of these two will translate to more wins, as the 8.5 win total for the year shows. While I believe that the Sooners will be a better football team this season, I think the tough schedule will make it too difficult for Oklahoma to hit nine wins.
Ole Miss (8.5)
Prediction: Under
Lane Kiffin scares me. His offenses have always made Carolina defenses look like they have never played football before. The man can flat-out develop quarterbacks as well, which brings me to the dilemma with this season. Jaxson Dart is gone to the NFL, along with many of the weapons he was throwing to last season. Quarterback Austin Simmons takes the reins for the Rebels this year, looking sharp in his limited action in 2024. Even though I believe in Kiffin as a playcaller and I have a ton of respect for Defensive Coordinator Pete Golding, I think the losses from last year’s roster will be too much to overcome. Nine wins are just too many for this year’s Ole Miss squad.
South Carolina (7.5)
Prediction: Over
Yes, I am a total homer. I love South Carolina, and I am not afraid to say it. That does not keep me from seeing the many potential pitfalls for the Gamecocks this season. If I were not a Carolina fan, I could very easily make the argument for under here. Shane Beamer’s squad faces a similar schedule to Oklahoma, as six of the final seven opponents are ranked in the Pre-Season AP Top 25. Yet South Carolina has something that it has never had in its entire history as a football program: a true program elevator at quarterback. While Carolina has had great quarterback play before (shoutout Connor Shaw), there has never been a player with a higher ceiling than LaNorris Sellers. His greatness COULD be enough to raise South Carolina in a similar way that Cam Newton brought Auburn to national prominence. If Sellers can don the Superman cape this year, Carolina will smash through the 7.5 win total set by Vegas. If Sellers takes a step back, the Gamecocks could be in for a very hard road ahead.
Tennessee (8.5)
Prediction: Over
When I first saw the season win total of 8.5 for Tennessee, I thought there was a typo on my screen. 8.5?! I mean, look, Josh Heupel is a good coach. His offensive scheme gives me nightmares in CFB 26. But after losing Nico Iamaleava to the transfer portal along with a ton of production on both offense and defense to the NFL Draft, how can Vegas be predicting this many wins? The answer is in the Vols’ strength of schedule (spoiler alert: it sucks). With a vaunted out-of-conference schedule against the likes of Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB, and New Mexico State, 8.5 starts to make more and more sense. I think Tennessee will be a pretty mediocre team this year in the SEC. I still think they will win nine games.
Texas (9.5)
Prediction: Over
Steve Sarkisian kinda looks like a Bond villain, right? Anyway, Texas is going to be really good this year. The question is HOW good. I am pretty lukewarm on Arch Manning; lots to like, but almost no proven production. Given Manning will be operating the Ferrari that is a Sarkisian-coached offense, I think the Longhorns will be just fine on that side of the ball. Pair that with a defense that has gotten better and better each year and you have the formula for a dominant Texas team this season. The secret ingredient to the Longhorns hitting 10 wins this year is yet again strength of schedule. While starting the year at Ohio State is less than ideal, Sarkisian’s squad will play many of the SEC’s bottom dwellers during conference play. If they can take care of business against the inferior teams on their schedule, I like Texas’s chances to pick off a Top-10 team and make it to at least 10 wins this year.
Texas A&M (7.5)
Prediction: Over
People need to put some respect on Mike Elko. The man can coach defense better than 95% of coaches in the nation. Combine that with the deep-pocketed boosters at Texas A&M, and you have the makings of a winner. Last year did not fully go as planned, but the shortcomings from 2024 are entirely fixable for the Aggies in 2025. With an upgraded offense and a more consistent defense, I think A&M smashes through 7.5 wins and is a legitimate SEC contender this year.
Vanderbilt (4.5)
Prediction: Over
Spoiler Alert: Vanderbilt’s success in 2024 was not a fluke. Yes, Diego Pavia is amazing and perfect for the Commodores. But if you watch the Dores on tape, you will see a host of other playmakers that helped raise the program to respectability last season. Let’s be clear, I do not expect Vanderbilt to compete for the SEC this season. Can Clark Lea’s squad win 5 games? You’re right, and if you aren’t careful, they may beat your favorite team in 2025.