Cullen’s Week 1 SEC Predictions
Previewing every SEC team's Week 1 matchup
Thursday, August 28
Central Arkansas @ Missouri — 7:30 PM on SEC Network
Line: Missouri -36.5
Prediction: Missouri
While the matchup may be incredibly lopsided, this game is crucial for Missouri. The quarterback battle going on between Sam Horn and Beau Pribula will be interesting to watch as the Tigers take on a heavily outgunned Central Arkansas team. Missouri will win easily, but the score is secondary to watching which QB takes the lead in this battle moving forward.
Friday, August 29
Auburn @ Baylor — 7:00 PM on Fox
Line: Auburn -2.5
Prediction: Baylor
There may not be a more nervous head coach in the SEC heading into Week 1 than Hugh Freeze. Breaking in brand new starting quarterback Jackson Arnold on the road against a Dave Aranda-coached defense is less than ideal for an Auburn team looking to build confidence early in the year. While the Tigers will be the more talented team, Baylor is going to test Auburn’s nerve with an electric environment in Waco. If things start poorly for Arnold and the Tigers, the wheels could fall off in a hurry (which, if you are a sicko like me, would be hilarious to watch).
Saturday, August 30
Texas @ Ohio State — 12:00 PM on FOX
Line: Ohio State -2.5
Prediction: Ohio State
Speaking of crazy environments, Columbus, Ohio, could be in for an earthquake on Saturday. Past the fact that both teams are highly ranked and incredibly talented, I can’t wait to see how both of these new quarterbacks perform on the national stage. Arch Manning and Julian Sayin will be tested early and often by two really good defenses. The big thing to watch will be which quarterback tries to be Superman, and which quarterback plays inside the offense and makes the easy throws (especially in the first half). I think this will be a defensive slugfest, with points being hard to come by for both teams.
Tennessee vs. Syracuse (Aflac Kickoff Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium) — 12:00 PM
Line: Tennessee -13.5
Prediction: Tennessee
Yet ANOTHER new starting quarterback enters Week 1 with something to prove. QB Joey Aguilar looks to bring stability and consistency to a Volunteers offense that was hard to watch at times last season. Facing off against Syracuse will not be easy for a Tennessee team entering 2025 with lots of question marks. While Aguilar has the capacity to make big-time throws, he has also shown an alarming tendency to throw lots of INTs. If he turns the ball over early and gives Syracuse life, watch out for The Orange to play spoiler for Tennessee’s first game of the season.
Mississippi State @ Southern Miss — 12:00 PM
Line: Mississippi State -11.5
Prediction: Mississippi State
Man, does Mississippi State need this game. I picked State to beat its win total of 3.5, so I guess I really need this win as well. What I am curious to watch is how well senior quarterback Blake Shapen executes the Bulldogs’ offense. If Head Coach Jeff Lebby’s team is going to get its first conference win this season, the Bulldogs’ defense must show improvement against a horrible Southern Miss offense. If this game is close in the second half….let’s just say it will be a long season in Starkvegas.
Toledo @ Kentucky — 12:45 PM on SEC Network
Line: Kentucky -7.5
Prediction: Kentucky (barely)
The fact that Kentucky is favored by basically a touchdown over a MAC team tells you all you need to know about public perception for the Wildcats this season. If we are being honest with each other, the college football troll in me wants this to be a very close game. If I had to pick one thing to watch for, it would be how journeyman quarterback Zach Calzada plays. This Toledo team was pretty darn good last season, and if Calzada struggles early, things could get quite bleak in Lexington.
Georgia vs. Marshall — 3:30 PM on ESPN
Line: Georgia -39.5
Prediction: Georgia
Another SEC team, another new starting quarterback. Gunnar Stockton has a great chance to solidify his position as the starting QB against an overmatched Marshall team. While I expect Stockton to play well, what I am really interested in is watching which running back flashes for the Dawgs. A big storyline from last season was Georgia’s inability to run the ball consistently. Fixing this issue starts in Week 1, as I expect Offensive Coordinator Mike Bobo to run the ball A TON to figure out which running back will step up and show they deserve to be RB1.
Alabama @ Florida State — 3:30 PM on ABC
Line: Alabama -13.5
Prediction: Alabama
You know, there’s a part of me that thinks Florida State will show a ton of fight and keep this game close. There’s another part of me that is genuinely worried for Seminoles QB Thomas Castellanos’ safety. Talk is cheap, and Bama will have every opportunity to prove that they are back to being a dominant force in the SEC. Watching YES ANOTHER new starting quarterback in Ty Simpson take the field will be interesting, but my focus will be on the Tide’s defensive line. On paper, Alabama should have one of the best defensive lines in the country. If guys like LT Overton and Tim Keenan play up to their potential, Bama will wreck any hope Florida State has of an upset.
Arkansas vs. Alabama A&M — 4:15 PM on ESPN+
Line: Arkansas -46.5
Prediction: Arkansas
The Razorbacks get one of the softest season openers in the SEC with Alabama A&M. While it’s tough to learn much from watching Arkansas beat up on an overmatched opponent, there are still things worth watching. Arkansas brought in 27 transfers from the portal, and many of them will need to contribute right away. I’ll be paying attention to which names start making plays for a Razorback team that’s short on proven weapons.
Vanderbilt vs. Charleston Southern — 7:00 PM on ESPN+
Line: Vanderbilt -38.5
Prediction: Vanderbilt
Was last season a sign of things to come, or just a fluke? We won’t get that answer on Saturday for Vanderbilt, but we might get a little closer. The game itself shouldn’t be in doubt, but the big question is: what do Vandy’s new playmakers look like? For what feels like the first time in a decade, the Commodores return proven production on offense with Diego Pavia and Sedrick Alexander. The bigger mystery is on defense: what does Clark Lea have to complement what looks, on paper, like a high-powered offense? One player to keep an eye on is safety CJ Heard. If he flashes early and often, this Vandy defense could exceed last year’s unit.
Ole Miss @ Georgia State — 7:30 PM on SEC Network
Line: Ole Miss -38.5
Prediction: Ole Miss
I’m tired of harping on it; you get it at this point. Yes, Ole Miss will have a new starting quarterback this season in Austin Simmons. I expect him to carve up a Georgia State defense that was 116th in the nation in points allowed last season. The more interesting thing to watch in this game will be how well the Rebels’ defense plays. Ole Miss lost a ton of production from an elite defense last season. Struggling to stop a lower-tier opponent would put a damper on Simmons’s debut, as Ole Miss will need to play more complementary football than in years past if they are going to contend for their berth in the twelve-team playoff this season.
LSU @ Clemson — 7:30 PM on ABC
Line: Clemson -3.5
Prediction: Clemson
Man, this game is going to be amazing. Credit to LSU and Clemson for agreeing to a home-and-home as opposed to a neutral-site game. While I will be watching about a dozen storylines throughout this game, the biggest one is how well LSU’s offensive line can block Clemson’s pass rush. Sure, Garrett Nussmeier is a dude, and the Tigers are loaded at receiver and running back. None of that will make a difference if Clemson’s d-line eats LSU alive. If LSU can slow Clemson down enough to give Nussmeier time, I think this game will be very close heading into the fourth quarter. For Head Coach Brian Kelly to pull off the upset, however, he will need to prove his team is ready for the national spotlight early in the season. Until I see it, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Sunday, August 31
South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech (Aflac Kickoff Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium) — 3:00 PM
Line: South Carolina -7.5
Prediction: South Carolina
Yes, I am a South Carolina fan. Yes, I am a nervous wreck thinking about this game. Virginia Tech enters 2025 with new offensive and defensive coordinators and a head coach squarely on the hot seat. This smells like a recipe for either a route or a disaster for the Gamecocks. I think the first half of this game is going to be on drugs. No one has any clue what the Hokies will really look like on either side of the ball, so outcome variance is off the charts. Past the unknown, I am fascinated to watch how South Carolina looks at defensive tackle and linebacker. The Gamecocks lost a ton of production from last season’s unit, so starting the year off strong is a must for Defensive Coordinator Clayton White’s unit. If Carolina looks good on defense, I think the Cocks will roll out of Atlanta with an easy win.